Search for: All records

Greenhouse gas emissions from the residential sector represent a large fraction of global emissions and must be significantly curtailed to achieve ambitious climate goals. To stimulate the adoption of relevant technologies such as rooftop PV and heat pumps, governments and utilities have designedincentivesthat encourage adoption of decarbonization technologies. However, studies have shown that many of these incentives are inefficient since a substantial fraction of spending does not actually promote adoption. Further, these incentives are not equitably distributed across socioeconomic groups. In this article, we present a novel data-driven approach that adopts a holistic, emissions-based, and city-scale perspective on decarbonization. We propose an optimization model that dynamically allocates a total incentive budget to households to directly maximize the resultantcarbon emissions reduction– this is in contrast to prior work, which focuses on metrics such as the number of new installations. We leverage techniques from the multi-armed bandits problem to estimatehuman factors, such as a household’s willingness to adopt new technologies given a certain incentive. We apply our proposed dynamic incentive framework to a city in the Northeast U.S., using real household energy data, grid carbon intensity data, and future price scenarios. We compare our learning-based technique to two baselines, one “status-quo” baseline using incentives offered by a state and utility, and one simple heuristic baseline. With these baselines, we show that our learning-based technique significantly outperforms both the status-quo baseline and the heuristic baseline, achieving up to 37.88% higher carbon reductions than the status-quo baseline and up to 28.76% higher carbon reductions compared to the heuristic baseline. Additionally, our incentive allocation approach is able to achieve significant carbon reduction even in a broad set of environments, with varying values for electricity and gas prices, and for carbon intensity of the grid. Finally, we show that our framework can accommodateequity-awareconstraints to preserve an equitable allocation of incentives across socioeconomic groups while achieving 83.34% of the carbon reductions of the optimal solution on average. 

We study the cooperative asynchronous multi-agent multi-armed bandits problem, where each agent's active (arm pulling) decision rounds are asynchronous. That is, in each round, only a subset of agents is active to pull arms, and this subset is unknown and time-varying. We consider two models of multi-agent cooperation, fully distributed and leader-coordinated, and propose algorithms for both models that attain near-optimal regret and communications bounds, both of which are almost as good as their synchronous counterparts. The fully distributed algorithm relies on a novel communication policy consisting of accuracy adaptive and on-demand components, and successive arm elimination for decision-making. For leader-coordinated algorithms, a single leader explores arms and recommends them to other agents (followers) to exploit. As agents' active rounds are unknown, a competent leader must be chosen dynamically. We propose a variant of the Tsallis-INF algorithm with low switches to choose such a leader sequence. Lastly, we report numerical simulations of our new asynchronous algorithms with other known baselines.